Final predictions for U.S Senate
The battle for the U.S Senate is not so close in comparison to the Presidential Race and the battle for the U.S House. But, Margins Matter.
I have two flexes in life:
I correctly predicted the winner of the 2016 and 2020 U.S Presidential Elections. More on that when I make my predictions for Trump v. Harris in another article.
I was one of the only people that predicted, at least compared to mainstream projections, that Republicans would probably gain seats in the U.S House in 2020.
Battle for the U.S Senate Majority
Two things need to be established about the U.S Senate:
The Republicans are the clear favorite (95%+) to control the Senate. West Virginia is essentially an uncontested Republican gain and that seat alone gets them to a 50-50 Senate. Even in the unlikely event that West Virginia is the only Republican gain of the night, Republicans have a coin flips chance of controlling the Senate with J.D Vance breaking the tie.
Steve Daines is a genius. His leadership at the NRSC has put multiple senate races into play that shouldn’t even be close. I’m very disappointed that he isn’t running for majority leader. Perhaps he will stay chair of the NRSC in the long-term.
Let’s take a look at some individual races. I will not be covering West Virginia because everybody knows its an automatic Republican gain.
Montana: Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester v. Republican Tim Sheehy
Republicans dodged a bullet in Montana. At one time, I was convinced that Matt Rosendale would win the nomination, and Tester would cruise to victory. That didn’t happen.
Montana is a growing state, and it has always been very socially liberal despite its overall Republican lean at the Presidential level. This has allowed Democrats to do very well in down ballot races even in the Trump Era. However, Trump has never been on the ballot at the same time as Jon Tester.
The Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average currently has Sheehy leading Tester by 5 points, and Tester hasn’t led in the average since March.
Final Prediction: Sheehy +6.5 (Republican Gain)
Ohio: Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown v. Republican Bernie Moreno
Sherrod Brown, like Tester and the soon to be talked about Bob Casey, came into the Senate in 2007 at the dawn of massive anti-bush/anti-Iraq war sentiment that would carry Obama to a landside victory less than two years later. Brown beat the current (and very popular) Governor of Ohio Mike Dewine. The 2006 political environment was so bad for Republicans in 2006 that Charles Gibson, the host of ABC Election Night 2006, put it very simply: “To be a Republican in Ohio is to be in trouble.”
Safe to say, lots has changed since 2006.
Fundamentally, Sherrod Brown should be cooked. Trump will probably win Ohio by around ten points. Right now, the DDHQ polling average has Trump only winning Ohio by six points.
Folks, if Trump only wins Ohio by six points, Harris is President of the United States. While Harris winning the election is certainly possible, a six point difference in Ohio is blue wave territory in the electoral college. That’s probably not happening.
As for the DDHQ polling average for the Senate race in Ohio, Moreno leads Brown by less than a point. To be fair, the quality of polling this year in Ohio is atrocious. I would argue the last high quality poll to be done there was about a month ago.
Despite the tailwinds, Brown has outspent Moreno 4 to 1. Now, some of this gap is probably due to outside PACs doing more heavy lifting for the Moreno campaign. But, even with that money, Moreno is getting destroyed on the airwaves.
However, I firmly believe Republicans are, once again, being underestimated in Ohio. Given the virtual tie in polling, he is probably going to be dragged across the finish line by Trump.
Final Prediction: Moreno +1 (Republican gain)
Pennsylvania: Incumbent Democrat Bob Casey v. Republican Dave McCormick
Bob Casey, like the two previous Democrats discussed, rode the 2006 blue wave into the Senate. Casey absolutely manhandled incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Santorum.
Somehow Santorum’s career didn’t end there, and he had above an non-zero chance of becoming President in 2012.
Anyway, this race shouldn’t be close. Bob Casey, whose father had the same name, was a very popular governor in Pennsylvania. Casey has never had a close election in the Senate despite Pennsylvania being the ultimate swing state.
But, Dave McCormick has ran a fantastic campaign. He’s being outspent, but by less than a 2 to 1 ratio (which is good for the Trump era). Some of this gap has been closed via PAC money, and McCormick has put Casey on the ropes by connecting him to Biden’s economic and immigration policy.
Casey responded by saying he supports President Trump’s trade polices. What a tactic.
After what happened with McCormick in 2022, Pennsylvania doesn’t deserve him. Trump’s horrible endorsement of Mehmet Oz and the 900 vote recount between McCormick and Oz would have made almost anybody else bitter enough to never run again. However, McCormick came back, won the nomination, and has the best shot of taking out Casey as any Republican has had or ever will have.
It’s not enough though. Casey’s name and Pennsylvania’s slight Democratic tilt should give Casey enough of an edge to win a 4th term.
Final Prediction: Casey+3 (Democratic hold)
Wisconsin: Incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin v. Republican Eric Hovde
In terms of the Senate races this year, this race is the tossups of all tossups. Wisconsin is a 50-50 state in both the Presidential and Senate race.
Like Casey, Baldwin is concerned about Trump turning out working class voters, and she is also running ads saying she worked with Trump to bring back manufacturing jobs.
Eric Hovde has also ran a great campaign. He’s clawed away at the gap between his and Baldwin’s fundraising numbers. Additionally, a recent CNN poll has indicated that Hovde may outperform Trump in Wisconsin due to increased support among the suburban voters who have all but left Trump in the dust.
While I think Hovde outperforms Trump, it won’t be by more than 1-2 points. But, I think that difference is enough to make Eric Hovde the next United States Senator from Wisconsin.
Final Prediction: Hovde +1 (Republican gain)
Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada:
There is a lot of Republican hopium about these three races. To be fair, Michigan is not like the others. Mike Rogers could still win. But there’s no way Rogers wins unless Donald Trump wins Michigan (Spoiler: I don’t have Trump winning Michigan). I also think Trump has to win Michigan by at least 2.5 to pull Rogers over the finish line. Call me Skeptical.
Sam Brown in an American hero. But, he’s no match for Jacky Rosen in Nevada. Over half of Nevada has already voted. Any late surge, especially if its a mirage, will have much less effect in Nevada than it would in other states.
Finally, Kari Lake is the worst Republican Senate candidate in the country. To be honest, Republicans probably don’t even care if she loses. Even Trump has had enough of her.
Final Predictions: All Democratic Holds
MI: Slotkin +4
NV: Rosen +6
AZ: Gallego+7
Overall Prediction: Republicans win 53 Senate Seats and win back the Majority in the U.S Senate
